Thursday, February 25, 2010

You can't be both.

It has been a while since my last post but the markets and polytrick-ians are still showing their ignorance.

If you are a true capitalist and you believe that the markets will rebound you will be spending big now on plant and machinery and infrastructure renewal now. Because now everyone is scrambling for business and good deals on Capital Expenditure, labour and goods can be had. It will be cheaper to build a factory or a bridge now than later. That means that you can take a bigger advantage (profit) when the market bounces back again. However, the capitalists and polytrick-ians obviously do not believe their own propaganda.

They fear inflation and try and hammer it out like Reagan and Thatcher tried to do.
Batten down the hatches! Downsize! Make vast swathes of their staff redundant!
Remember from earlier posts, inflation is GDP growth which is profit. It is the same force at work, not a different one. The economies are trying desperately to inflate and the polytrick-ians and central bankers are trying their best to hold it down which in effect is only a temporary measure because it is going to explode.

A little off base here, but I want to try and explain that the market dynamics in an inflationary economy are not the same (indeed opposite) to those dynamics in a deflationary economy. I will use the analogy of the first supersonic test flights.
In the early days we did not have jet engines powerful enough to send planes at supersonic speed horizontally, so they climbed to great heights and use gravity to assist the acceleration to the sound barrier. However there were some fatal crashes. By radio the test pilots reported that they couldn't pull out of the dive and indeed it seemed that their attempts to pull out were putting them into an even steeper dive. Lives were lost. Planes crashed.

Nowadays physicists specializing in the aerodynamics field understand airflow at supersonic speeds and indeed the control surfaces on an aircraft have reverse effects. Pulling up on the joystick was in fact helping those planes go into a steeper dive. Yet all the test pilots had to do was push the stick down.

I think it is a similar with deflationary economies. The market dynamics are different. Rather than do the keynesian things that are mis-taught in our universities and colleges, we should be doing the opposite.

Every company head, every polytrickian they are all trying to do the obvious. Micro management with a bucket trying to bale out the Titanic. Its corner shop mentality. Apples were in demand last week, lets get lots of apples. SO they buy lots of apples only to find that the next week is warmer and people prefer citrus fruits for refreshment and are buying oranges and tangerines instead. The apples go mouldy, the store keeper looses money, in a desperate attempt to stay afloat he fires half his staff so he can only open until 6.00pm instead of 10.00pm.

Going back to the first point of this post, since the capitalists are not taking advantage of spending at truly low levels, they cannot believe in capitalism. Instead they are the corner shop trader. Not businessmen but people who are in business by chance. Have climbed up the company ladder by stabbing everyone in the back and schoolboy bully tactics.

Therefore capitalism not only doesn't work, it doesn't exist either. Its a ponzy scheme and as such they should all go on trial.

No comments:

Post a Comment