Wednesday, November 4, 2009

More on the markets.

OK take a deep breath before you answer this.

What gives us (western financial companies, banks and governments), the right to access prices today for delivery in the future?

I am talking about futures, forward rate agreements, outright forwards and options.
Why does anyone need to fix prices in the future? If Keynesian theory (already corrupt, but upheld by the current bunch of ignoramuses running governments and central banks) is correct then prices will find their own level where the buyer and the seller find mutual and equal benefit in the price of the commodity.

To try and fix an asset or liability obligation at some date in the future is bound to encourage speculation, which it has. Do we really want our banks and capital markets to just be a casino for those with the biggest stakes? Already now embedded in our markets since the late 1980's it would be hard to outlaw these products. However, since the financial "Big Bang" any Tom, Dick or Harry who wants to make a "thargload" just has to invent a new financial derivative and sell the idea to an institution and hey presto loads of upfront cash with VAR in the future!

Another ridiculous assumption is that historic prices predict future prices. Again invent your own analytical marker and the "market cult" will test it, absorb it, dream about it and worship it! The latest "in thing" is the SABR volatility model that tries to tell us that the current price of a commodity carries all the information about the past prices and all the future prices. I guess a suitable name for this theory would be quantum derivatives. hahahahahaha!  Are our financiers really such a gullible lot? Perhaps we need to ask the witchdoctor!

1 comment:

  1. Perhaps they could be right! So long as the past price and the future price is within the range of -infinity/+infinity then the current price reflects all possible prices. Losers!

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